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 The basics of good flipping.

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Camilla97



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Join date : 2016-03-14

PostSubject: The basics of good flipping.    Mon Mar 14, 2016 9:29 pm

Elaboration on flipping.

Excuse me for my bad spelling and grammar, I’m Danish and I’m not very good at English.
I decided to elaborate on flipping since I think that I might be the only semi-dedicated flipper in the clan. It seems to me, that flipping is by far the best option for moneymaking in the game with possible rewards upwards of 4b a month for the very active players willing to sacrifice skilling and I do think that 2b profit a month is very common for experienced flippers which don't sacrifice skilling.

I’ll add a lot of pictures and use these to make it easier to grasp. I’ll try to explain the best method of flipping which I know, and since I’ve been at it for months now, the technique have grown increasingly advanced and I do apologize if I’m not able to make it an easy guide to read and understand.

Basically 2b is only possible with multiple bonded accounts. I will go over how to make the first 10m on a new char later (this process takes on average 4 days of activity in my experience). You want to flip using multiple accounts and only using your main to a minimal extend. The reasons why you wanna keep your main account out of flipping is, 1) that Flipping in game takes far more clicks than flipping from the computer browser edition of the rs companion which I will introduce shortly 2) It takes away time from doing other stuff.

The thing you’re trying to estimate while flipping is the probability of buying and selling at different prices, and at first this seems to be gambling, which it is not. At any time there is a probability the item will sell at different prices if you have the right kind of item. The right kind of items are those which has a low buylimit compared to the quantities sold. Lets take a bandos chestplate as an example. You’ll always be able to obtain some clue regarding if something is trading above or below mid. The ways to obtain a clue regarding if the item is selling below or above mid is 1) knowing where it traded earlier, 2) how the price changed on the last GE update and 3) checking by buying 1 of the item. Since you have some indication that it might be trading below mid, the likely positive outcomes could be one of those depicted in the picture below.


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Camilla97



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PostSubject: Re: The basics of good flipping.    Mon Mar 14, 2016 9:31 pm

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Camilla97



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PostSubject: Re: The basics of good flipping.    Mon Mar 14, 2016 9:36 pm

Since you have an indication, that the BCP is trading below mid, then the most likely margin to be made is the orange one, the next likely one might be the blue or the green. You prefer that the BCP is crashing hard so that you can try for the blue profit instead of the orange. If you’re patient you can also try for the green or even the pink profit, but the most interesting aims are orange and blue. The reason why I choose to aim for these margins are that they are fast when the conditions are right for the margins (Since BCP is dropping these two are the best options depending on the “strength” of the oversupply. Others are only drawn to make a depiction of what we’re choosing from). You never wanna go for either the red or the brown margins since this evolves crossing the ge guide price. The reason why you don’t wanna cross the ge guide price is, that this price is the items most “strong” price lvl since crossing it means that the item went from being oversupplied to being undersupplied. You wanna stay away from this scenario since it’s way more likely that you’re able to sell for orange or blue profits since the orange depicts the scenario, where someone tried to sell at mid but since BCP is oversupplied it didn’t sell and therefore the seller lowered the price. If the BCP is very oversupplied (say one of your accs insta bought BCP for -4,9%), then it’s very likely that many people will be willing to dump the price to -14,26% (they haven’t been able to sell at mid for a long time), and that nobody is buying at a higher price than -14,26% because many people will be getting rid of their items supplying all of those who outbid you.

As I mentioned earlier the GE guide price is very strong, and if an item is crashing hard even the -5% price might be hard to cross making you wanna sell at a little less than -5% (this is the blue scenario). Since the Ge prices update 1 time a day for max 5% in any direction the risk is minimal if you’re having a hard time selling.

And basically it’s way more likely that you’ll get profit if you didn’t buy it instantly at -5% or -14.26% (basically stretching on the buy), than it is likely, that you’ll have zero profit or even a loss. Since the fact that you didn’t instabuy at say -5% makes it very unlikely that you wont be able to sell it back at -5% in worst case. Say you went for the -4.9% to -0.1% on the BCP and it instabought at -5% and you can't sell it at -0.1%. Then you know, that you wanna go for the blue profit on another acc and sell the BCP back at the buy price or keep it a little while (I'll get to the keeping it for w while strategy, which is a overbuilding strategy for flippers with +1b). So This bad scenario where you bought too high turned into a zero loss or maybe a -0.1% loss on 1 acc while you got roughly 9% profit on the rest of the accs (calculated in terms of the GE mean. Obviously the difference between selling at -14.26% and -5.1% is a 10 procent profit, but for simplicity I'll just speak in terms of the GE guide price), so actually the bad scenario is the good one, and the good scenario is just 4.8% profit on ea acc.


Obviously I’ve lost on some trades. Sometimes you forget about an item, sometimes the ge updates very early making the ge price drop almost 5% and having a still oversupplied market - often the market just crashed right under me. In those situations a loss might occur. But using the upper strategy gives me +4.8% profit 95% of the times, zero profit 4% of the times and a loss 1% of the times roughly. The basic inevitable fact is, that you're buying in the lower end of the probability-price distribution, so ion average this will translate into profit.
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Camilla97



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PostSubject: Re: The basics of good flipping.    Mon Mar 14, 2016 9:51 pm

I will not go in debt with rising prices except saying that the best scenario in a rising market is the one where you’re buying at +5,1% and selling at +14,26% with the next best scenario being less of a rise giving you the margin +0,1% to +4,9% which is the complete opposite of the example depicted in the picture.

I’ll now talk about items and the difference in margins between items. Basically T70 GWD gear is incredibly easy. The buy limit is so low that the market has a lot of volatility (nobody has control over the market). I also do nex items except the wand which has 10 buy limit. I do drygores and rarely I flip the margin on nox items or asc cbows. Drygores are the most expensive item which works with this strategy. But you can actually do a lot with the items which I just described for this strategy. There is a total of 6 buylimit ea 4 hours on T70 GWD chest and legs, there is a buylimit of 2 on ea nex bodys, legs, helms and the virtus book, and 1 item limit on the last couple of nex items. 1 buylimit on ea drygores. By far the drygores are the hardest to get a 4,8%+ margin on, but if they haven’t sold when you’re getting close to the GE update which happens between 6 and 20 o’clock gametime you can always buy a drygore and sell all your stock at that price. Also springs and silverhawk feathers are often quite volatile (remember: The buylimit to quantities traded is the deciding factor, sharks are not nearly as good as silverhawks even though sharks sell in way bugger quantity)

I do understand why this all might seem a little confusing and because of that I’ll add a few screenshots explaining more in debt how I use the strategy just described, advantages of the strategy, alternatives to the strategy, and showing the huge advantage of using companion.


Last edited by Camilla97 on Mon Mar 14, 2016 10:21 pm; edited 1 time in total
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PostSubject: Re: The basics of good flipping.    Mon Mar 14, 2016 9:53 pm

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PostSubject: Re: The basics of good flipping.    Mon Mar 14, 2016 10:19 pm

So the companion page looks like that of the picture right above this comment. And I have 4 accs which flip together. So whenever I find a good margin I use it on all accs. The major advantage of adding more accs isn't only the scaling of profits it's also the ability to check for good margins on a lot of items at the same time. So basically adding more accs increases the profits on ea acc, both because you have a lot more searching power but also for a lot of other reasons. Earlier I wrote about stocking up on items which didn't sell at the price which you aimed for. Say I'm about to go to bed, and it's 50% likely that there's been a GE update,when I wake up, but I haven't sold todays stockpiling of Zaryte bows (those have 2x buylimit ea 4 hours so maybe I have 20 of those laying in my banks), what I do is that I check the sell price by buying a single item and sell all at that item overnight. This strategy sometimes is a bit too gready and actually I got caught in a trap where I haven't sold all before GE update this morning. There's a long way down to zero profit or even a loss, but a dozen of torva platebodys which had a goal of 4.8% profit went down to only 2.8% profit ea which is also a loss. You'll soon find that the aim is not only to make profit. Making profit is easy, as I said I make profit on 95% of my trades quite easily, the focus should be on being clickefficient, entering prices fast by having price setting systems in your head, having a free slot on ea acc to take over an item which just finished on another acc so that you don't have to delete an offer to make room for the margin you just found and then entering the first offer once the "ready" item have been traded. You want those free slots on ea acc because it's all about the clicks. You also wanna be clear on the value of your clicks.

I value entering an offer to buy and an offer to sell after at 200k so I do nothing which doesn't have this expected return.

From the picture you can see that I only have 4 accounts including my main. Which is a huge mistake. The perfect amount seems to be 5 accounts on companion and 1 acc for playing and then only taking the main acc to Ge whenever you have 1m+ of fast margins lined up.

The last thing I promised to talk about was bonding a new acc. I normally buy some jugs after tutorial island, sell those on ge then go buy feathers and maybe more jugs. After 100k profit which is quite fast, I put it on companion. The first thing I normally do is silverhawk feathers and springs. You can get from 100k to 1m very fast just flipping silverhawks and spring, doing both buy limits should get you there, and then I just do that ea buylimit til I have the bond, after that the acc receives some money from another acc and it begins trading seriously.

You might be thinking that it's hard to earn the upkeep for bonds. I do understand the concern, but try bonding a new acc the way I just described and you'll discover, that the upkeep is peanuts. I often have earned my bonds 3 times over from the overnight bidding. For overnight bidding I just lowball the same items as I usually flip. As always I prefer crashing items since these are almost riskfree when overnight lowballing since GE prices can only drop max 5% ea day.
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Camilla97



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PostSubject: Re: The basics of good flipping.    Mon Mar 14, 2016 10:26 pm

To conclude I'm sorry I haven't been more thorough in this guide and that I haven't been making it more easy than I have. I do think you guys do decerve better litterature, I just used all the effort I wish to use. So if anything is unclear or you have further questions I'll respond. I'm guessing that some of you actually want to see some trading. I do not know how to record it, but if you make it easy for me I'll be willing to record a half an hour of flipping. Also keep in mind that with 2b+ profit a month goal there's a lot of clicking involved, remember that I accept 200k expected profit a flip, and I average 500k profit, so 1b is 2k items flipped, which is a lot of items. The main goal is making the clicks efficient and not deleting and reentering too many offers.
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